Preliminary requirements for expert judgment acquisition in probabilistic safety assessment

G. Guida, P. Baroni, G. Cojazzi, L. Pinola, R. Sardella

Proc. ESREL 96-PSAM III International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Crete, GR, 1996, 491-498



In this paper the proble of expert judgment (EJ) in Probabilistic Safety Assessment is recognised as a true knowledge problem. A critical analysis of traditional EJ methodologies leads to highlight some common weak points of theirs. The suggestion is made to reformulate the expert opinion issue in a Knowledge Engineering setting in order to reach a sound basis for comparison, integratio and justification of expert knowledge and relevant uncertainty. The proposed approach is described in its goals, and requirements for its development are detailed.

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